Global change is leading to changes in both the distribution of plant and animal species and the composition of ecosystems. Of the driving forces of global change, the most important for determining the distribution and performance of organisms are the range and seasonality of environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation; the intensity and frequency of severe, episodic events such as fires and storms; and the group of demographic, economic and social pressures related to human activities. The goal of Focus 2 is to observe and model this complex suite of impacts and responses so that patterns of change in ecosystem composition and structure can be better understood and simulated.

Activity 2.1: Patch-scale Dynamics
[Leader: James Reynolds]

Objective
To use integrated experimental, observational and modelling approaches to predict the future composition and structure of patch-scale ecosystems under novel combinations of land use, climate and atmospheric composition.

Task 2.1.1: Short-term Experiments and Models of Ecosystem Structure and Function (Paul Leadley)

Task 2.1.2: Long-term Models of Ecosystem Structure and Function (Harald Bugmann)

Task 2.1.3: Altitudinal Gradient Studies (with BAHC) (Harald Bugmann and William Bowman)

Task 2.1.4: Vegetation Change in Semi-arid Communities (Jianguo Wu)

Activity 2.2: Landscape Processes
[Leader: Sandra Lavorel]

Objective
To determine how important landscape processes, such as fire and migration, are affected by global change; the implications for resource management; and the feedbacks to the Earth system.

Task 2.2.1: Responses of Vegetation to Land Use and Disturbance (Susan McIntyre and Sandra Diaz)

Task 2.2.2: Relationships between Global Change and Fire Effects at Landscape Scale (Michael Flannigan)

Task 2.2.3: Plant Dispersal and Migration Modelling (Steven Higgins)

Task 2.2.4: Linking Landscape Pattern and Ecosystem Functioning (with Task 4.2.1) (Debra Peters)

Activity 2.3: Global Vegetation Dynamics
[Leader: Wolfgang Cramer]

Objective
To develop the capacity to predict continental and global responses of the terrestrial biosphere to changes in climate and land use on the time-scale of decades to centuries.

Task 2.3.1: Development of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) (Colin Prentice)

Task 2.3.2: Models and Observations of Land-Use Impact on Terrestrial Vegetation at the Global Scale (Rik Leemans)

Task 2.3.3: Feedbacks from Broad-Scale Vegetation Change to Climate Processes (Jonathan Foley)